John Noyce dies at 36
Monday 15 June 2015 13:04 BST
The Technical Analyst notes with sadness the death of Goldman Sachs
technical analyst, John Noyce.
John worked on the firm’s currency trading desk in London and wrote
the weekly report “The Charts That Matter Next Week” which was
widely followed. See Bloomberg’s full obituary.
John was not only a highly respected technical analyst but also a
very kind one. When at Citigroup he regularly helped The Technical
Analyst with articles and conference presentations, and he was
always a delight to work with. The Technical Analyst sends its most
sincere condolences to his wife and family.
Goldman Sachs: At 7% Above The 55-DMA, The Market Has Been More
Overstretched Just Once In History, And Other Mispricings
by Tyler Durden
Oct 22, 2010 9:39 AM
John Noyce, Goldman's arguably best technician, in his weekly Charts
that Matter, has released one (among many) interesting observation
on just how overbought the market currently is, and more
specifically just how desperate the velocity of the pick up in the
stocks since August has been, in order for levered beta players such
as hedge funds, as we predicted in the end of August, to make up as
much of their year as possible before seeing redemptions (even so
many will not survive into 2010 as the entire 2/20 model is now
crumbling). Specifically, by looking at where the S&P is relative to
its 55 DMA, Noyce notes that every time the market has gotten to
above 5% its trailing average, it has always entered a period of
consolidation (read at least modest selling). Furthermore, compared
to the recent trend extreme of 7% above 55 DMA, the market moved
meaningfully above one just one occasion in the past: in January
2009... just before the crash to the decade lows of 666 on the S&P
In the FX realm, Noyce appears to stand behind the FX team's long
EURUSD recommendation with some technical back up.
Our EUR/Broad Index appears to have completed a similar size bear
market from the December ‘08 highs to the September ‘10 low to that
which it completed from the September ‘98 high to the May ‘00 low
While the bounce need not be in a straight line it certainly looks
as though the EUR has stabilised on a broad basis and further
recovery seems quite likely over time.
This supports the idea that after a period of
consolidation/correction to unwind extreme moving average setups on
the daily chart EURUSD should again begin to move higher.
As a reminder the EUR/Broad Index shows the performance of the EUR
versus an equally weighted basket of the other “Old World G10”
currencies, it’s EUR-based so higher is EUR-strength.
And last, looking at the 10 Year, Noyce notes a comparable record
overstretching relative to the 55 DMA:
U.S 10-year yields have now spent 126 consecutive trading sessions
below their 55-day moving average on a close basis. This is beyond
the prior extreme set in July ’95 of 124 consecutive sessions below
Given the concerns we’ve expressed on the prior slide this does seem
to be a warning sign that the market is becoming increasingly
susceptible to an upside correction in yields.
The pivot to watch is 2.58-2.61% where the downtrend from the April
highs and the 55-dma are converged.
A break above that point would leave the 200-dma as a possible
target a long way above at 3.23%.
Overall, it now appears very important to watch for any signs of a
turn higher in yields.
There is much more in Noyce's latest, but it all just goes to
confirm the old maxim that the market can frontrun the Fed for far
longer than the 55-DMA can stay solvent.